Market insider Bloomberg Intelligence has released a comprehensive report on global electric vehicle (EV) trends and take-ups, with a headline claiming that Volkswagen AG will overtake current leader Tesla in 2024, with China’s BYD in third place.
The report actually claims that various global carmakers will challenge Clubhouse leader Tesla through the impending wave of competing models, although profit incentives are said to be throttle due to rising battery costs and persistent lack of scale.
In short, the report found that Tesla’s insane appraisal and battery-electric car sales crown has not yet been challenged by current automakers, whose mix of “disappointing” EV sales has led to real dilemmas amid rising costs and shocks to protect batteries. .
Scenario analysis suggests that 15 percent of the global battery-powered electric-vehicle market share in 2025, compared to 6.0 percent in 2021, adding that China is the second largest region in Europe to maintain its dominance. United States and hybrid-heavy Japan trail.
“Tesla [is] With the help of a new EU plant, it is ready to hold its global sales crown for at least another year, “the report said, citing its new plant in Berlin.
“However, Volkswagen is ready to overtake the US company in 2024 and has already taken the lead in Europe. Tesla will be executed for consolidating its 50 750 billion market capitalization, “he added.
The report states that Tesla’s medium-term volume growth will depend on its “suspicious” cybertruck rollout, while VW Group will launch 16 new models by 2024, such as the Audi Q6, A4 E-Tron and A6 E-Tron; Volkswagen ID.5, ID.6, and ID.Buzz; And Porsche McCann EV.
All Volkswagen Group aims to have 25 percent BEV blends from 2025-26, equivalent to about 2.5 million units per year.
Volkswagen is investing € 30 billion in the EV supply chain, including six new battery plants in Europe this decade. The group also benefits from the economy of scale from the high-volume MEB modular BEV platform, it added.
The report warns that legacy brands trying to close the market valuation gap with Tesla will fight unless they move their EV-related assets to a separate float, which is again something on the VW agenda.
Volkswagen AG is set to launch an IPO of the Porsche brand later this year, valued at € 85 billion, with a potential 30 percent BEV sales mix in 2023 and more than 45 percent “significantly ahead of peers” in 2025.
“German automakers – who are still seen as the leaders in the legacy transition – explain their low multiplier in 1Q alone, despite a record margin of only 5 percent of the BEV sales mix on average. This is in addition to the risk of recession, rising rates, supply chain constraints and inflation, “the report said.
Perhaps surprising to those who do not follow the automotive world closely, China’s Warren Buffett-backed BYD is set to become the third largest BEV player in 2022 and could exceed one million units annually by 2024, the report said. Its own big plan.
At the same time it has been rather harshly critical of Mercedes-Benz.
“Despite being considered one of the major legacy BEV brands, Mercedes’ ambitious plans to exceed 50 percent of electric vehicle sales by 2025 – including the majority of BEVs – surpass its insufficient 4 percent mix by 2021,” the report said.
Another respectable reference went to Ford, which Bloomberg said was a sell-out success for the F-150 Lightning.
“Ford is ready to turn the tide of electric vehicles away from Tesla, jumping into the F-150 Lightning competition for almost a year and making Ford the first automaker to increase production of a full-size battery-only pickup truck. “It simply came to our notice then.
“Ordinary Motors and Tesla will not be competing in space before 2023, and the small scale of the Rivian makes it threat-free.”
It says the basics of production and distribution of Revian and (partner startup) Lucid have come under further scrutiny as markets set their prices for small-sized car makers who have not navigated the macroeconomic shocks in their supply chain.
“Both companies have reduced their initial production and delivery estimates because increased equipment availability and cost increases the profit dynamics of drivetrain technology, while higher inflation and lower inventory disturb consumer demand,” it added.
The full report talks about other regional trends in BEV space and can be found here.